SARB Repo Rate History 2020–2026

The South African Reserve Bank's repo rate is the single most important domestic variable for ZAR. Every cut weakens the rand (lower yield reduces carry trade attractiveness); every hike strengthens it. This page provides a complete chronology of SARB decisions from 2020 through 2026 — a reference that no SA forex site has compiled in full.

The Complete Chronology

2020: Emergency COVID Easing — 300 bps in 5 months

The SARB delivered three emergency cuts in five months, responding to the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and collapsing global demand. The 3.50% rate reached in July 2020 was the lowest repo rate in South African history. USD/ZAR peaked near R19.35 in April 2020 as risk assets collapsed globally, before recovering through the second half of the year as risk appetite returned.

2020–2021: Holding at Record Low

The SARB held at 3.50% through November 2021, observing the post-COVID recovery. During this period, ZAR was more influenced by global factors (commodity prices, US dollar direction) than by domestic monetary policy — with rates at historic lows providing little yield support.

2021–2023: Tightening Cycle — 475 bps in 18 months

The tightening cycle was driven by global and domestic inflation pressures: surging food and energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a weakening rand amplifying import costs, and the SARB's commitment to anchor inflation expectations at 4.5% (its target midpoint at the time).

The 8.25% cycle peak was the highest repo rate since 2009. During this period, ZAR received yield support but was simultaneously pressured by load shedding concerns (Stage 6 reached in mid-2023) and SA's fiscal position.

2023–2025: Holding, Then Easing

The SARB held at 8.25% from May 2023 through August 2024 — a 15-month pause — as it assessed whether inflation was sustainably returning toward target.

The easing cycle coincided with:

• SA's first load-shedding-free period in years (positive domestic)
• S&P upgrading SA's credit rating from BB- to BB (November 2025)
• Gold prices above $4,000/oz providing commodity support for ZAR
• Global inflation declining, giving SARB room to ease

2026: Surprise Reversal — Back to 7.00%

The May 2026 hike was the first rate increase since May 2023 and caught markets partially off-guard. The SARB cited rising inflation forecasts (4.4% for 2026, up from 3.7% in the prior projection), driven by Middle East conflict pushing oil prices higher, El Niño drought risk affecting food prices, and a slightly weaker rand feeding import costs.

The vote was 4–2 in favour of hiking — not unanimous, reflecting genuine MPC disagreement.

The New Inflation Target (November 2025)

A structural change that affects how future SARB decisions will be interpreted: in November 2025, the SARB — in a joint announcement with the National Treasury — formally revised its inflation target.

Old target: 3–6% band with a 4.5% midpoint (in place since 2017)

New target: 3% point target (±1 percentage point), effective from the announcement

This is a material hawkish shift. The SARB is now committed to anchoring inflation at 3%, not merely keeping it within 3–6%. It means the bar for rate cuts is higher than under the old framework, and future inflation surprises above 4% will be treated more seriously.

The Prime Lending Rate

The prime lending rate in South Africa is always repo rate + 3.5%. This spread has been constant since 2020.

Remaining 2026 MPC Dates

This data is sourced from SARB official communications and financial data providers. Interest rate decisions and ZAR responses are documented historical events — past rate moves do not predict future policy. This is general information, not financial or investment advice.